Presentation prepared by Erika Palin and Galina Guentchev for the first PRIMAVERA virtual meeting, hosted by Dragana Bojovic in in the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC, Spain), at Novermber 14th 2017.
We asked participants how important weather and/or climate change was to their personal work and for the professional decisions they made. We also asked them if at present, climate or weather hazards had an influence on the work of their organisation. For 55% of the participants weather and/or climate are very important for their personal work or for the professional decisions they make and for 42% it is quite important.
Figure 2 presents where different participants access data from and what they use it for. The participants used these types of weather/climate information mostly because it improved the quality of their decision-making and secondly because this information was available to them.
Figure 3 is a heatmap that shows the extent of the effect of various climate hazards on the participant’s work or their organisations. It shows that almost 50% of the participants are mostly affected by rainfall and rainfall related floods (Rain flood). Another 25.3% and 13.3% of the participants were largely or moderately affected by rain flood, respectively. High winds are another major climate hazard with 46.7% of participants being affected by it to a very large extent and 22.7% being affected to a large extent. Other hazards such as high or low (extreme) temperatures, snow, ice and frost, coastal hazard, droughts and lightning storms are also of concern to the participants as over 40% said they were affected by these hazards to a large or very large degree.
Fig 4 provides a breakdown of the extent of climate hazards divided into 5 specific sectors: energy, transport, insurance, agriculture and water resource management. It can be noticed that coastal hazards clearly affect insurance sector (88%) to a greater extent than the rest of the sectors. Similarly, 70% of the participants in agriculture agreed that high temperatures affect them to a large or very large extent. All the participants from from this sector agreed that droughts significantly affect them. Thus, while also important to other sectors, high temperatures and droughts are climate hazards of major concern for the agricultural sector. Rainfall and rainfall related flooding is the climate hazard of greatest concern to the participants. Indeed it has major effects on all the sectors, except for energy where only half of the participants said they were significantly affected. High winds, on the other hand, are of greater concern to the energy, transport and insurance sectors than to agriculture and water resource management. Finally, earth movements as seen before, are a minor concern to all the sectors with an exception of the transport sector, where for 39% of the participants earth movements have large or very large impacts on the work of their organisation or the sector.
Intense rainfall can cause direct significant and long lasting impacts on transport operations, due to flooding, while indirectly impacting transport safety and bringing damage to transport infrastructure.
Impact on the European transport system
Intense rainfall can cause direct significant and long lasting impacts on transport operations, due to flooding, while indirectly impacting transport safety and bringing damage to transport infrastructure. Submerged roads and railway tracks become unusable, towns become inaccessible, movement of people and goods becomes disrupted, and floods could even lead to human casualties.
Knowledge about projected future changes in extreme rainfall events, and the projected changes in factors contributing to the occurrence of floods is needed. Such knowledge, combined with the sector's understanding of its vulnerability to these events, will allow transport organizations to develop strategies to minimize the potential risks brought about by changes in the characteristics of flood events in the future.
Impacts on the European transport system
Heavy rain can lead to delays and line closures, due to flooding of the track or lineside equipment, or to flood-related debris on tracks; track damage (e.g. ballast washout); embankment scour and washout; bridge scour; flooding of depots; landslips; embankment landslides; overwhelmed railway drainage in cuttings.
Roads can suffer structural damage from water and debris, such as road edges erosion, subsidence and heave; embankments and culverts damage; landslips.
Operations can be disrupted due to river flooding and debris accumulation. In anomalously strong currents, it can become difficult or impossible to manoeuvre large vessels safely. Additionally, debris accumulation can reduce the under-keel clearance of the vessels.
Ports and airports
Flooding at ports and airports limits their operability. Floods may also have indirect impacts: even if ports and airports can operate, access by road and/or rail can be limited by flooding external to the airport or port.
Example: 2002 European floods
During the period 11th-14th August 2002, exceptionally heavy rain affected central Europe, which caused local flash floods. The rainfall was especially extreme in South Western Germany, Western and North Eastern of the Czech Republic. Several days later, the large rivers fed from these areas, including the Elbe, Vltava and Danube, flooded many cities and towns, including Prague and Dresden, with water levels reaching record heights.
Prague's historic centre was seriously damaged and the flow of the River Vltava reached 5300 m3/s, 20% more than the flood of 1845. About 40000 people were evacuated from their homes. The subway also suffered serious damage.
In Bratislava, Budapest and Vienna, the River Danube reached its highest level in decades. However, these cities did not suffer such major damage.
WIND AND ENERGY OVER EUROPE
Instead of the usual westerly flow, with the passing of low and high pressure systems with their associated cold and warm fronts, atmospheric blockings appear at mid-latitudes as large, quasi-stationary high pressure systems (anticyclones).
What is an atmospheric blocking?
Atmospheric blockings are stable configurations of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation that yield persistent and anomalous weather in large regions for a time period from weeks to months.
On the left side of the high pressure, warm air is advected from lower latitudes, and anomalously high persistent temperatures are registered. On the right side, the opposite situation occurs, and anomalously cold conditions happen. These situations can lead to heat waves or cold spells waves depending on the season of the year.
Consequences of Atmospheric blockings
- Persistent dry conditions do happen below the high pressure area, and also anomalously weak winds.
- Depending on the topography and the position of the blocking, heavy rain and flooding can take place too, if the unstable persistent throughs at the sides of the blocking high pressure area have enough moisture sources (e.g., a warm water mass as the Mediterranean sea).
Atmospheric blocking patterns classification
The most typical atmospheric blocking patterns in the Euro-Atlantic sector are classified in two types: ‘omega’ block and ‘diffluent’ or ‘dipole’ block.
- 1 An example of an ‘omega’ block, named after the uppercase greek letter Ω. This map would yield warm weather to ireland and cold to the Benelux. UK could suffer lack of rainfall.
- 2 An example of a ‘diffluent’ or ‘dipole’ block. This map would yield rainy weather to France and drought to UK. This kind of blockings can be more persistent than the ‘omega’ blocks.
Atmospheric blockings have a huge impact on the energy sector
- Less precipitation than average in central and northern Europe, leading to decreased hydropower generation.
- Significant winter cold spells that affect vast areas over Europe, which increase energy demand for heating.
- Summer heatwaves over Northern Europe, which lead to increased energy demand for cooling Summer.
- Disruption of typical wind patterns and ‘wind drought’ events which decrease wind power generation.
- Persistent clear skies in regions affected by high pressures, which increased solar PV generation.
Example: May 2005 Atmospheric blocking
Many of the most relevant heat waves and cold spells registered during the last decades in Europe are related to atmospheric blockings. Here we show an example of a strong blocking over Europe and its consequences.
Added value of high resolution
Several studies have showed that higher resolution improves the representation of the blocking in climate models. For example, Anstey et al., (2013) showed how the models with higher vertical and horizontal resolution represented more accurately the observed blocking statistics than coarser resolution models.
Contribution from PRIMAVERA
- The PRIMAVERA project is developing a new generation of advanced high-resolution global climate models, capable of simulating and predicting regional climate with unprecedented fidelity.
- The increase in model resolutions of the PRIMAVERA models (typically around 25km) will allow to study physical processes involved in atmospheric blockings and their future evolution with an unprecedented level of detail and accuracy.
Anstey, J. A., P. Davini, L. J. Gray, T. J. Woollings, N. Butchart, C. Cagnazzo, B. Christiansen, S. C. Hardiman, S. M. Osprey, and S. Yang (2013), Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 3956–3971, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50231