In the forthcoming European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 in Vienna, the PRIMAVERA project will be introduced in the session Why does high-resolution

Simulations of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (left) and the wind speed at 10m height (right) in the global domain, using the ultra-

We asked participants how important weather and/or climate change was to their personal work and for the professional decisions they made. We also asked them if at present, climate or weather hazards had an influence on the work of their organisation. For 55% of the participants weather and/or climate are very important for their personal work or for the professional decisions they make and for 42% it is quite important.


Figure 2 presents where different participants access data from and what they use it for. The participants used these types of weather/climate information mostly because it improved the quality of their decision-making and secondly because this information was available to them.


Figure 3 is a heatmap that shows the extent of the effect of various climate hazards on the participant’s work or their organisations. It shows that almost 50% of the participants are mostly affected by rainfall and rainfall related floods (Rain flood). Another 25.3% and 13.3% of the participants were largely or moderately affected by rain flood, respectively. High winds are another major climate hazard with 46.7% of participants being affected by it to a very large extent and 22.7% being affected to a large extent. Other hazards such as high or low (extreme) temperatures, snow, ice and frost, coastal hazard, droughts and lightning storms are also of concern to the participants as over 40% said they were affected by these hazards to a large or very large degree.

Fig 4 provides a breakdown of the extent of climate hazards divided into 5 specific sectors: energy, transport, insurance, agriculture and water resource management. It can be noticed that coastal hazards clearly affect insurance sector (88%) to a greater extent than the rest of the sectors. Similarly, 70% of the participants in agriculture agreed that high temperatures affect them to a large or very large extent. All the participants from from this sector agreed that droughts significantly affect them. Thus, while also important to other sectors, high temperatures and droughts are climate hazards of major concern for the agricultural sector. Rainfall and rainfall related flooding is the climate hazard of greatest concern to the participants. Indeed it has major effects on all the sectors, except for energy where only half of the participants said they were significantly affected.  High winds, on the other hand, are of greater concern to the energy, transport and insurance sectors than to agriculture and water resource management. Finally, earth movements as seen before, are a minor concern to all the sectors with an exception of the transport sector, where for 39% of the participants earth movements have large or very large impacts on the work of their organisation or the sector.

Simulations of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (left) and the air temperature at 2m over the North Atlantic by the global ultra-


Impact on the European transport system


Intense rainfall can cause direct significant and long lasting impacts on transport operations, due to flooding, while indirectly impacting transport safety and bringing damage to transport infrastructure. Submerged roads and railway tracks become unusable, towns become inaccessible, movement of people and goods becomes disrupted, and floods could even lead to human casualties.

High water in the Elve River. Pixabay

Knowledge about projected future changes in extreme rainfall events, and the projected changes in factors contributing to the occurrence of floods is needed. Such knowledge, combined with the sector's understanding of its vulnerability to these events, will allow transport organizations to develop strategies to minimize the potential risks brought about by changes in the characteristics of flood events in the future.

Impacts on the European transport system

  • Railways

    Heavy rain can lead to delays and line closures, due to flooding of the track or lineside equipment, or to flood-related debris on tracks; track damage (e.g. ballast washout); embankment scour and washout; bridge scour; flooding of depots; landslips; embankment landslides; overwhelmed railway drainage in cuttings.

    Damage to a Railway track. Wikimedia Commons.
  • Roads

    Roads can suffer structural damage from water and debris, such as road edges erosion, subsidence and heave; embankments and culverts damage; landslips.

    Flooding in Cockermouth, UK. University of Salford Press.
  • Inland waterways

    Operations can be disrupted due to river flooding and debris accumulation. In anomalously strong currents, it can become difficult or impossible to manoeuvre large vessels safely. Additionally, debris accumulation can reduce the under-keel clearance of the vessels.

    Danube flooding. Imaresz.
  • Ports and airports

    Flooding at ports and airports limits their operability. Floods may also have indirect impacts: even if ports and airports can operate, access by road and/or rail can be limited by flooding external to the airport or port.

    Passengers stranded in Gatwick airport during the floods of December 25th 2003. Chris Healey.

Example: 2002 European floods

During the period 11th-14th August 2002, exceptionally heavy rain affected central Europe, which caused local flash floods. The rainfall was especially extreme in South Western Germany, Western and North Eastern of the Czech Republic. Several days later, the large rivers fed from these areas, including the Elbe, Vltava and Danube, flooded many cities and towns, including Prague and Dresden, with water levels reaching record heights.

Prague Floods 2002 (Hochwasser in Prag, Tschechische republik) - Karlín, Troja. placesofinterest.

Prague's historic centre was seriously damaged and the flow of the River Vltava reached 5300 m3/s, 20% more than the flood of 1845. About 40000 people were evacuated from their homes. The subway also suffered serious damage.

In Bratislava, Budapest and Vienna, the River Danube reached its highest level in decades. However, these cities did not suffer such major damage.

Future projections

  • According to the current generation of climate models, precipitation is projected to increase throughout this century in Northern Europe, and decrease in Southern Europe.
  • The projected increase in heavy precipitation is related to the fact that warmer air can hold more water vapour, which in turn means there is more water available in the atmosphere to fall as rain.
  • A marked increase in heavy precipitation events is also projected, which could lead to an increase in river flood risk, and without adaptive measures will bring greater flood damages (Kovats et al. 2014).

Contribution from PRIMAVERA

  • The PRIMAVERA project is developing a new generation of advanced high-resolution global climate models, capable of simulating regional climate with greater fidelity.
  • The increased temporal (sub-daily) and spatial resolution (typically around 25km) of the PRIMAVERA models will allow a better representation of physical processes leading to heavy convective precipitation, and of features related to flooding, such as storms, storm tracks, and blocking structures which often deflect the storms on their paths.
  • Although convective storms are not explicitly resolved by the PRIMAVERA models, the increased temporal resolution will also allow some aspects of intense precipitation to be explored